The Art Of Uncertainty - David Spiegelhalter

From the UK’s ‘statistical national treasure’, a clever and data-driven guide to how we can live with risk and uncertainty

We live in a world where uncertainty is inevitable. How should we deal with what we don’t know? And what role do chance, luck and coincidence play in our lives?

David Spiegelhalter has spent his career dissecting data in order to understand risks and assess the chances of what might happen in the future. In The Art of Uncertainty, he gives readers a window onto how we can all do this better.

In engaging, crystal-clear prose, he takes us through the principles of probability, showing how it can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to pandemics and climate change forecasts, and explores how we can update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Along the way, he explains why roughly 40% of football results come down to luck rather than talent, how the National Risk Register assesses near-term risks to the United Kingdom, and why we can be so confident that two properly shuffled packs of cards have never, ever been in the exact same order.

Drawing on a wide range of captivating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also having the humility to admit what we do not know.

Free Freight is offered on New Zealand deliverable orders of over $300.

Our shipping rates are based on the cost of your combined purchases.

As a general rule, orders will be dispatched from our Queenstown store, on the next business day after payment is received. Sometimes, we might achieve same day dispatch, however this is not guaranteed.

All orders are freighted via standard security freight, utilising several different Third Party couriers. The courier/s used will depend on the product ordered and the delivery address. Freight for destinations outside of normal regions, should be negotiated prior to dispatch.

NOTE: We offer an estimate of freight for Large items outside of New Zealand, as a means of allowing the continuation of a purchase opportunity. We request you email us at the time of purchase, in order for us to immediately & accurately offer a dispatch cost.

Click and Collect - With online purchases, the customer has an option to personally collect from our NZSHRED store at 19 Shotover Street, Queenstown. These purchases are freight & handling free-of-charge.

NOTE: All solid Watersports boards (eg: Paddleboards, Surfboards, Wakeboards & Wakeskates) are generally Click and Collect ONLY. We can on occasions quote on freighting of these to New Zealand destinations. This cost will be 100% incurred by the customer. 

All International Orders require a contact phone number to be provided to the local courier. For orders to China, a Resident ID is also required prior to dispatch.

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